Negative Tilt Wx

Heat, Drought, and "Relief"

2011-07-29T16:21:00.001-05:00

Greetings! As I am writing this, a thunderstorm is moving through the Wichita area. It is a sight for sore eyes as a brutal drought is in progress across much of southern Kansas.

This is a radar image taken just after 230 pm.

As has been the drill the last several days across western and northern Kansas, these storms will be responsible for damaging winds as they collapse, as well as some torrential rains, and a nice drop in temperatures (the trade off for that will be the uptick in humidity). There is no tornado threat and a very minimal threat for large hail, given that the hailstones will likely melt as they accelerates toward the surface. The thunderstorm activity will begin to wane a couple of hours after sunset.

During the day on Saturday, the "cold front" will move back north as a warm front and we'll continue with hot and dry conditions. Heat indicies will also be higher in any areas that have received rains over the last couple of days. For this reason, the National Weather Service offices have issued excessive heat warnings for most of central and eastern Kansas beginning tomorrow morning and running through Wednesday night. It appears that the peak of the heat will be Monday-Wednesday where we could have highs surpassing the 111 mark we have had twice this season. The overnight lows will not cool down much either, only getting into the mid 80's during this period. By the end of this latest excessive heat warning (provided it ends on Wednesday August 3rd), Wichita will have been in an excessive heat warning for all but 1 day since July 15th.

While today's rain is a good sight, much more rain is needed to alleviate the on going drought across Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas. Below are the drought monitors for the three states:

Kansas Drought Monitor as of 7/26/11. The area of exceptional drought (deep red) has increased every week this month.

Oklahoma Drought Monitor as of 7/26/11. 3 months ago, less than 2% of OK was in exceptional drought (deep red) now, almost 53% of OK is in exceptional drought.

Texas Drought Monitor as of 7/26/11. Every single county in Texas is experiencing at least moderate drought conditions, while over 3/4 of the state is in an exceptional drought (deep red).

What has been the culprit for this drought? Blame a persistent pattern that has not really changed a whole lot since October of last year. At the jet stream level, there has been a trough anchored across the Rockies and intermountain West (record snows in many areas of the Rockies) and across much of the northeast. In between those areas of storminess, there southern half of the U.S. has been under a ridge of high pressure. While those entities have moved occasionally, their overall position has changed very little as the summer has progressed. Thus, areas from Kansas-Texas to the northern Gulf coast are in an extreme to exceptional drought.

The amount of precipitation needed to end the drought is staggering to say the least. The map below is an estimate of the amount of precipitation in six months needed to end the existing drought plus refill aquifers, rivers, lakes and other sources of water. As you can see, much of south central into western Kansas need at least 15-20" of precipitation to end this drought, higher amounts the farther south you go.

Amount needed to end drought in six months.

Current indications are that the heat will roll on and the drought will continue to intensify across the southern plains through the month of August. Peering even further out, the probabilities for a wet winter are looking low at this time, but take that with a grain of salt.

I'll have more on our march to 50 100 degree days, tomorrow.

Matthew Harding

Historically Hot Sunday at Wichita

2011-07-10T16:30:00.000-05:00

Greetings! As of 4 pm cdt, the temperature at Wichita's Mid-Continent airport was 111 degrees. This broke the record of 110 degrees last set in 1986. It is also the first time since July 30, 1980 that Wichita has been higher than 110 degrees, and the 10th time since 1880 such a feat has been accomplished.

More on today's extreme heat and when a break may come tomorrow.

Tornado Outbreak Today and Tonight

2011-05-24T13:09:00.000-05:00

Greetings! A major tornado outbreak is likely this afternoon and tonight from central Kansas to central Texas. Currently, areas of sunshine are baking the atmosphere across south central Kansas and into western and central Oklahoma. Even though metro Wichita is currently in cloud cover, it is important to note that the atmosphere below is still extremely unstable, and would maintain supercell thunderstorms as they move into or develop in the area. This still remains a potentially significant and life threatening situation!

The Storm Prediction Center ratcheted up the tornado probabilities in their update at 1130am, highlighting the area between Wichita and Oklahoma City with the greatest threat (45% chance of a EF2-EF5 tornado within 25 miles of a point).

The peak time for the threat of strong to violent long-tracked tornadoes in south central Kansas and north central Oklahoma will likely come between 4 and 10 pm, with several rounds of storms likely.
If the tornado threat was not enough, large and destructive hail will be likely from any storm.

I'll update when time allows me to. Good luck to all who will be out chasing today.

Major Severe Weather Threat for Kansas

2011-05-24T01:18:00.001-05:00

Greetings! Today was a bit of a bust with multicellular storms developing in central Oklahoma during the late afternoon hours, which put a crimp in the tornado potential. For the rest of the evening and overnight, there is a chance of storms to develop across central Kansas as deep moisture returns to Kansas. Large hail up to quarter size will be possible with any storms that develop. Storms should move east and out of the area by mid-morning.

I am still anticipating a major severe weather outbreak, including the potential for strong, long-tracked tornadoes, to unfold across the area during the mid-late afternoon hours on Tuesday. Let's answer all the pertanent questions first, then I'll lay out a target area.

Aloft, a powerful trof will begin to move out into the plains tomorrow and assume a negative tilt by tomorrow afternoon. At the surface, southeasterly winds will transport deep moisture northwest in response to a low pressure developing in southwest Kansas. This combination will produce strong veering of winds with height. After morning convection moves east, a capping inversion will be in place until peak heating, when explosive thunderstorm development is likely.

Evening model data continues to suggest that the area will be extremely unstable with CAPE values greater than 4000 j/kg, 0-1 km helicity values over 300 m2/s2, and lifted indicies of -11 to -17 by 7pm Tuesday. All of these parameters suggest that supercells will be capable of producing extremely large hail, potentially up to softball (4.25" diameter) hail, and strong, long tracked tornadoes. Hodographs from this evenings model data indicate that a few violent tornadoes will be possible, given the wind shear, which will increase toward sunset. It is important to note that that the severity of any event is ultimately tied to mesoscale features that cannot be accurately predicted until several hours before the event unfolds.

Timing: Morning storms should exit stage right by 10 am, with most of the area becoming partly cloudy by noon. Storms could begin to develop to the northeast of the surface low by mid afternoon. The greater development will likely occur toward 4 pm, with rapid and explosive thunderstorm development.
That said, this is an event where it doesn’t make much sense to ask when storms will arrive in your particular location; nobody knows since the initial storms will be cellular in nature. Just understand a severe storm is basically possible anytime from 2pm to midnight Wednesday, with the peak coming in the 5-9pm timeframe.

Storms should evolve into a rather intense squall line, with damaging winds and isolated tornadoes continuing well into the overnight hours tomorrow.

Remember: With the potential for severe weather today and an even greater threat tomorrow, be sure you are in a position to hear severe weather warnings, never rely on an outdoor siren, and have a good plan of action when warnings are issued. No need to panic; even large tornadoes are small compared to a large county. But, we must be prepared.
Target: I am liking area near Wellington as a starting point. We may jump west to catch any storm that moves in from Oklahoma. Below is a graphic with the 1 am convective outlook overlaid.

I will have another update around mid-morning tomorrow. Rest up Kansas, we're in for a long day tomorrow.

Two Day Severe Weather Threat Ahead

2011-05-23T15:32:00.000-05:00

The threat for significant severe weather will begin later this afternoon, and peak Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. With that in mind, we'll break up each threat period into a Q & A format so that you'll have the information you need to know.

The First 24: As of 1 pm cdt, storms continue to move deeper into Missouri and northern Arkansas. The atmosphere west of the Flint Hills (including Wichita) and into western Oklahoma has become strongly unstable, with CAPE values nearing 3000 j/kg. Skies continue to be partly to mostly cloudy from Wichita east, while areas west are into full sunshine. Also, there appears to be an outflow boundary from this morning's thunderstorms has set up shop from Pratt-Hutchinson to north of Emporia. I expect thunderstorms to begin developing in western Oklahoma later this afternoon and move northeast into south central Kansas toward sunset. Any storm that goes up today will quickly become severe.

Threats: As of now, the main threats appear to be large hail and damaging winds, however, isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out especially southeast of a line from Pratt-Hutchinson-Emporia and west of the Kansas Turnpike given the high instability and proximity to outflow boundary. Heavy rain and short lived flooding concerns will be possible with any storm that moves over your location, given the high amount of moisture in the atmosphere.

Timing: Severe weather should begin to ramp up after 3 pm, beginning in western Oklahoma and far south central Kansas. The peak time will likely come between 5 and 10pm tonight. The threat should quickly diminish after midnight.

The Next 24: The potential is there for an outbreak of severe thunderstorms and tornadoes, some of which could be strong. Below is the 1230pm outlook for tomorrow from the Storm Prediction Center.

Long time followers of Kansas weather know that the severity of any event is ultimately tied to mesoscale features that cannot be accurately predicted until right before the event unfolds. Having said that, the players are definitely on the field for a very significant severe weather and tornado outbreak tomorrow across the eastern two-thirds of Kansas and the body of Oklahoma.

Aloft, a powerful trof will begin to move out into the plains tomorrow and assume a negative tilt by tomorrow afternoon. At the surface, southeasterly winds will transport deep moisture northwest in response to a low pressure developing in southwest Kansas. This combination will produce strong veering of winds with height. After morning convection moves east, a capping inversion will be in place until peak heating, when explosive thunderstorm development is likely.

Timing: Morning storms should exit stage right by 10 am, with most of the area in full sunshine by noon. Storms could begin to develop to the northeast of the surface low by mid afternoon. The greater development will likely occur toward 4 pm, with rapid and explosive thunderstorm development. Once this happens, all modes of severe weather will be likely, with forecast parameters suggesting strong, long track tornadoes being a distinct possibility.

Storms should evolve into a large squall line toward midnight with a continuing threat of damaging winds as the system moves east. The tornado threat should diminish as the storms get into a line.

Remember: With the potential for severe weather today and an even greater threat tomorrow, be sure you are in a position to hear severe weather warnings, never rely on an outdoor siren, and have a good plan of action when warnings are issued. No need to panic; even large tornadoes are small compared to a large county. But, we must be prepared.

I will have updates on the situation as it warrants.

Forecast Update

2011-05-22T14:44:00.001-05:00

Greetings! Here's hoping your Sunday is going well. I will not be chasing today due to both Shaylon and I having a complete lack of sleep...she was up till 530am and I worked all night. If we didn't have to drive 2-3 hours to a target, we would be all in, but attempting to do a chase on little sleep has yielded bad results.
That said though, I would adjust my target to Coffeyville, KS based on a the converence point between an outflow boundary/dryline/and a weak surface cold front. To the east of that area, extreme instability and low LCL heights are prevalent. The shear is not what I would like it to be, but on days like this, the amount of buoyancy in the atmosphere will likely capitalize on the shear profiles (see NE KS yesterday). The main threat today will be extremely large hail, potentially baseball size or larger. The tornado threat may increase toward sunset as the low level jet gets ramped up. Any thunderstorms will begin to dissipate toward the midnight hour.

Attention will then shift back into southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma where a scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will develop after 1 am. 0-6km shear values will be in the 45-60 knot range, combined with elevated instability in the neighborhood of 2000 j/kg suggest that large hail, potentially larger than golfballs, and torrential rains will be the main threats. This area should grow upscale into a complex and move into eastern Kansas during the early morning hours on Monday. There remains some uncertainty as to how this complex will evolve with relation to the amount of recovery the atmosphere will have for another round of severe weather Monday afternoon and night.

I will have another update on the Monday and Tuesday threats after the 7pm model runs tonight. In the little bit of data I have looked so far today, there is the indication that both Monday and Tuesday could be potentially significant severe weather days. Again, this is 100% dependant on placement of surface and upper air features, mesoscale boundaries and the atmosphere's ability to recover from any thunderstorm activity. Be close to a source of weather information if you have plans Monday and Tuesday.

I will continue to update today's severe weather threat as it is necessary.

3 Day Severe Weather/Heavy Rainfall Event Likely

2011-05-22T06:19:00.003-05:00

Greetings! Before I get into my forecasting for the next several days, I wanted to recap my chase on Thursday. As a whole, the day was underwhelming. Storms fired in southwest Oklahoma shortly before 1pm and the warm sector became smaller with time, thanks to a north /south warm front. Usually for good severe weather setups, you want the warm front to run east-west. We were able to get on a storm near the Rush Center area close to sunset and it produced a loosely organized funnel cloud that quickly became obscured by torrential rainfall. The upshot to the whole thing was that portions of western Kansas in desperate need for water, got it.

I did not chase Friday, since the atmosphere was pretty worked over from the overnight/early morning thunderstorm complex. However, today may go down as one of my top 5 chasing disappointments. Shaylon and I were headed out for dinner when we both noticed some beautiful towering cumulus to the northeast....and my dumbass decided to not go after it. The storm that developed in Butler county about 6 pm went on to produce several tornadoes, one of which developed on the north side of Emporia and moved through the town of Reading, Kansas. As of early Sunday morning, reports indicate that 20 homes are destroyed and as many as 200 buildings are damaged as a result of this tornado. It is also believed that the same storm went on and hit Quenemo in Osage county. For more information on the Saturday evening tornado event, see the WFO Topeka Story on Tornadoes as they will be doing damage surveys later today.

The threat for severe weather will continue later today and tonight. During the afternoon, a wind shift will extend from central Kansas to northern Missouri. From the wind shift, a dryline will extend from southwest Oklahoma northeast into southwest Missouri. Ahead of this boundary, extreme surface based CAPE values of 3500-4500 j/kg will be found. As a jet streak (corridor of stronger winds in the atmosphere) moves north of the area, it is anticipated that atleast isolated supercells will break out from central Missouri into east central Oklahoma. Initially the storms will be capable of large hail (some significant hail over 2" in diameter possible) and damaging winds, but as the sunset approaches, the tornado threat may briefly increase thanks to a stout 30-40 knot low level jet at 850 mb (roughly 4500 ft off the surface) from the south. I am still torn as to whether to chase or not, but if I was going to, I would target Stillwater, OK and adjust from there based on storm development.

Later tonight, the severe weather threat continues. The aforementioned low level jet will increase moisture across southern Kansas, leading to another chance of thunderstorms, especially after midnight. The atmosphere aloft will be extremely unstable and large hail (some significant hail over 2" in diameter possible) is a very real possibility with any thunderstorms that develop.

There is some discrepancy in the models on how to handle the convection on Monday morning. Some models want to linger it and develop a heavy rain threat across southern Kansas, northern Oklahoma into southhern Missouri. While others want to move the complex along, and allow the atmosphere to recover and reload for another bout of severe weather Monday afternoon and night. If the atmosphere can recover sufficiently, then a significant severe weather threat will evolve, on top of the evolving heavy rain threat. Since this is really my first time looking at the Monday and Tuesday severe threat, I want to wait and see how the models trend before really getting into the forecast. I'll dig deeper into Monday's and Tuesday's severe threat in my post later this evening.

For now, make it a good Sunday!

Severe Weather Likely This Afternoon

2011-05-19T11:45:00.006-05:00

Good morning! The picture is becoming much clearer this morning about how this afternoon will unfold (as opposed to last Wednesday 5/12/11 and yesterday). In analysis of the atmosphere this morning, a 500 mb jet streak in excess of 80 knots was rounding the base of a trough axis and was moving toward Kansas. This jet streak was analyzed 10-20 kts higher than the models forecasted. A dryline was setting up shop from the eastern Texas panhandle north into Southwest Kansas to a warm front that was located generally along the US 56 corridor. South of the warm front and east of the dryline, a deep tongue of mid-upper 60 degree dewpoints. Skies were clearing west of a line from Hutchinson to Anthony to Watonga, OK. This area of clearing is slowly plodding east and further north with time.

The image above is the SPC's day 1 tornado forecast issued at 1130 am cdt. This is an excellent call based on looking at the latest data. This forecast encompasses the uncertainty with convection firing on the warm front (temps still in the 50's with visibilities below 1 mile in some areas) and the supercell potential for later today south of the warm front and clearing area.

In my opinion, the area from Larned to Lyons, south to the Oklahoma border, west of highway 14 and east of highway 283 (generally the area circled in gold) has the best chance to be the hotspot today. Winds at the surface and slightly higher off the deck are backed (more toward the east) and as the jetstreak comes out, the dryline will have a tendency to move back to the west in response. All of these factors would seek to enhance tornado potential. This is still a very tough forecast, that will need to be nowcasted with efficiency.

I have not looked at much with regard to tomorrow's forecast, but what I have looked at suggests that a day much like Wednesday 5/12/11 with much of the forecast largely dependant on what happens later this afternoon and tonight.

I will be out chasing this afternoon. Good luck to everybody who will be out.

Severe Weather Possible Thursday

2011-05-18T22:52:00.005-05:00

Greetings! As of this writing, thunderstorms were developing primarily north of the US 54 corridor and the SPC was thinking about issuing a severe thunderstorm watch for most of Kansas. As I mentioned in the previous post, the main threat with the storms will be large hail up to golfball size and dangerous cloud-to-ground lightning. Storms that develop should move north to northeast at 25-35 mph and should be gone by dawn.

Thursday is still looking like a very complicated forecast. Both models (NAM and GFS) support widely scattered to scattered thunderstorm development by late afternoon. Below is a map of where the areas the models highlight in terms of seeing the best chance for tornadic development. Keep in mind that the entire area (both circles) have a decent chance of seeing severe weather.

The latest run of the NAM is not as bullish on the tornado threat, as the model back off on the low level shear until the low level jet (5000 feet off the surface) kicks in shortly after sunset. As the low level jet increases, the CAPE decreases thereby diminishing the tornado threat. By 00z Friday, the area of instability off the NAM is razor thin and only between 2000-2500 j/Kg along the dryline with 0-1 and 0-3 km helicities in the 200-300 range. While the amount of instability has been consistent, the helicity values have come down in this latest run.

Tonight's run of the GFS model continues the theme of having a slightly more northerly position of the surface and upper level features, which leads to a little bit wider and little bit higher instability axis. Shear profiles are more favorable for tornadogenesis than the NAM, based largely inpart to the GFS progging the area to be in the right entrance region of the mid level jet streak at peak heating. This would explain the decrease in directional and speed shear that the NAM has. Based off the GFS, hodographs are supportive of tornadic supercells, with the best area being from roughly south of US 56 to US 412 in NC Oklahoma.

Of course, all of this is based on whether the clouds break for sunshine tomorrow. IF we get into a couple of hours of full sunshine, the risk for strong tornadoes will increase exponentially. Conversely, if we stay in the grunge stratus tomorrow, there will be a ton of chasers with tears in their beers (last Wednesday and yesterday ring any bells). It should be noted that the short term models (HRRR and RUC) indicate that there will be some clearing ahead of the dryline tomorrow and have instability values higher than the GFS and NAM. This is clearly a situation that will need to be nowcasted with efficiency tomorrow as the ultimate target will depend on trends and mesoscale features may occur enroute.

I would be inclined to drive to Pratt (roughly an 60-75 min drive west of Wichita) with the intention on making a call from there. If the instability axis is fatter and higher than advertised currently, the play should be toward the warm front/dryline combo where helicity/CAPE combo can be maximized. However, if the instability axis is as currently progged by the NAM, then a play toward the Oklahoma border would be wise.

I will update again tomorrow morning! Good luck to all headed out.

Scattered Severe Thunderstorms Likely Overnight

2011-05-18T21:46:00.002-05:00

Greetings! A warm front will slowly move north across central parts of western Kansas during the overnight. As this happens, a low level jet (roughly 5000 ft off the ground) will move over top the front and cause scattered severe thunderstorms to develop. The area circled in yellow has the greatest chance of seeing severe weather overnight. The main threat with this activity will be large hail up to 2" in diameter. A severe thunderstorm watch will likely be issued by midnight for the same area.

I'll have a complete update on the overnight activity, plus a look at tomorrow by midnight.

Severe Weather Possible Thursday

2011-05-16T22:29:00.004-05:00

Greetings! Hope that you got a chance to get out and enjoy the beautiful weather today. I am happy to report that Tuesday will almost be a carbon copy of Monday, so hopefully you'll have a chance to get out and enjoy it.

Changes to the weather pattern will begin late tomorrow night and into Wednesday. Late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, a band of showers and thundershowers will break out as higher dewpoints are advected into the area. Severe weather is not anticipated due to a lack of moisture and instability in the atmosphere. In the wake of the showers, clouds will be stubborn to leave for most of the day, but there will be an opportunity for some clearing toward late afternoon. Scattered showers and storms will redevelop again overnight Wednesday night into Thursday morning...as of now, these are not expected to be severe.

Above is the 120 hour Precip Forecast from the HPC. Wichita is the star in the middle of the image. The areas encircled are the areas for the highest potential of seeing severe weather Thursday and Friday. The HPC is predicting 1.25-1.75" of precip across central and eastern Kansas through 7pm Saturday...with lower amounts west.

Thursday looks to be the beginning of a potential 2-day severe weather event across the central plains as the upper level low and dynamics begin to lumber out. The setup for the central plains on Thursday would be the best looking one all year except for two glaring problems; the potential for a low cloud deck to ruin the thermodynamic profile and a thin area of instability progged by the NAM (North American Mesoscale) model. The GFS (Global Forecast System) model wants to clear the area out a little more, but the GFS has trended faster with the system the last several runs. My gut tells me that with winds strengthening with height in the atmosphere, we should be able to erode the cloud deck more than what the models are currently forecasting. Obviously if the cloud deck were to erode, the threat for strong tornadoes would be increase based on backing winds at 850 mb, amount of 0-1, 0-3 km helicities and increased thermodynamic profile. It'll be a "game-time" decision with regards to the amount of cloud cover.

Friday the threat area shifts farther east to impact mostly central and eastern Kansas, as well as Northern Oklahoma. Moisture quality will be better than Thursday, and this should yield higher CAPE values. During the afternoon hours, the upper dynamics will continue ejecting northeast and convective initiation should begin in the mid afternoon hours. A look at the 850:500mb crossover winds off the GFS would suggest that the potential for a linear type event exists given the winds at both heights are unidirectional (need change in speed and height for a good tornado threat.) Hopefully my update tomorrow will be able to shine a little more light on the severe weather threat for Friday. It goes without saying though that speed and placement of the upper wave will be key to the severe weather forecast Thursday and Friday.

I will update the threat for severe weather on Thursday again in the morning. I'll likely wait until tomorrow evening's model suite to update the severe weather threat for Friday.

Changes Coming?

2011-05-15T22:58:00.003-05:00

Greetings! My apologies for not posting the last 3+ months. I have been extremely busy on a couple major projects, school, and there really hasn't been a ton of eventful weather to talk about, atleast around here. Just as the Mississippi continues to flood, the drought around here continues to persist and strengthen.

Business, however, may begin to pick up toward the end of the week with another storm system that will lumber out into the Plains. I have not looked at much computer model forecasts this weekend, as I was celebrating my birthday. I will gaze into the computerized crystal ball tomorrow and let you know what I see.

Noon Winter Storm Update with Accumulation Map

2011-02-08T11:42:00.006-06:00

Greetings! Moderate to heavy snow continues across the southern half of Kansas at midday. Below is a radar image from Wichita taken at 1150 am cst.

Widespread 3-6" accumulations have been reported within this band. Below are some as of 12:15 pm:
9" 1 mile S of Ellsworth
7" Rush, Trego and Ellis Counties (3 Seperate reports)
6" Russell
6" McPherson
5" Hays
5" Hutch (4" in last 4 hours)
4" Emporia
4" Newton
3-4" Wichita (given the size of the city, your mileage may vary)

Snow will continue moderate to heavy at times through the remainder of the afternoon across the southern half of Kansas. Further west, areas of snow will develop as a low pressure begins to deepen in the Texas panhandle. This area of snow will reinforce what snow is falling around here and will keep it going through the night. Snow will gradually taper off Wednesday morning. Here is the accumulation map for the entire event.

Aside from the snow, the cold and wind will become a significant hazard. Temperatures continue to fall into the single digits, and winds have increased into the 15-25 mph range. This will blow and drift the snow around and drive wind chills into the dangerous -20 to -30 degree range. The bitter cold will continue through Thursday.

Want a silver lining? This snow provides much needed drought relief and temperatures will be near 50 degrees by the weekend.

I'll continue to provide updates as conditions warrant.

Matthew Harding

Second Major Winter Storm in a Week Affecting Kansas

2011-02-08T07:03:00.007-06:00

Good morning! The second major winter storm in a week is starting to affect the Kansas region. Snow started across northern Kansas during the overnight hours and so far, accumulations have been in the 4-6" range with snow still falling. As of 10:00am, winter storm warnings were expanded to include all of central Kansas, including Wichita, Salina, Dodge City, Hutch, Great Bend, Hays and Russell.

Temperatures and wind chills will continue to plummet as the day progresses. I expect 5 pm temperatures to range from near -5 in NW Kansas to near 8 across far southeast Kansas. Winds will increase to 15-25 mph with higher gusts, which will drive wind chills into the -10 to -20 degree range plus blow and drift the falling snow, creating significant travel problems. In a lot of ways, this storm will have a more significant impact on the state of Kansas than the snowstorm last week did.

As far as snow accumulations are concerned, I am working on a map of forecast accumulations and will have that up soon, but here is the gist of what I am putting into map form. These accumulations will be for the entire event, which should wrap up during the early afternoon hours on Wednesday.

Wichita, Hutch, Winfield, Northern Oklahoma => 7-10" with locally higher amounts
Goodland, Hays, Salina, Emporia, Dodge and Garden City => 4-8" with locally higher amounts
Far southwest and northeast Kansas => 2-4"

It is important to note that in a lot of ways, this storm will have a more significant impact on the state of Kansas than the snowstorm last week did.

I will keep this updated as the event continues and will have a snow map up by Noon with an update on the storm.

Matthew Harding

Widespread and Powerful Winter Storm Coming

2011-01-31T11:53:00.004-06:00

A major winter storm is destined to rendezvous with the eastern 2/3 of the continental United States. This is a multi-faceted winter storm and the impacts from it will be severe and long-lasting even after the storm is over. So, lets get right into it.

The image above is the storm system on water vapor imagery. The yellow line represents the reach of the system at midnight Tuesday morning, 6 pm Tuesday evening and 6 am Wednesday morning.

As of 1:15 pm Monday afternoon, winter storm warnings were in effect for all of central and eastern Kansas primarily east of Interstate 135 and it does include metro Wichita. Winter Storm warnings also include Topeka, Lawrence, Kansas City, Oklahoma City, Tulsa and St. Louis. There is the expectation that some portion or all of these will be upgraded to blizzard warnings with the 4 pm NWS forecast packages.

For the sake of time, I'll deal with the elements one at a time.

Snow: Precipitation will begin to break out in western Oklahoma during the overnight hours. This area will increase in intensity and areal coverage as it moves northeast into Kansas. Current model progs have snow beginning in the Wichita area shortly after sunrise tomorrow morning, with the heaviest falling in roughly a 7 hour window between 10a-5pm. Thereafter, the snow will begin to decrease in intensity and coverage.

The above graphic is the best thinking right now. The combination of snow and wind will make it hard to measure, as this will be a powdery snow.

Wind: North winds of 20-45 mph will be common across all of Kansas. In tandem with the snow, near blizzard conditions or blizzard conditions are a likelihood in the area, especially during the peak of the snowfall.

Cold: Away from the snow, sub-zero wind chills will be the dominant story. The affect of the wind will drive wind chills into the life threatening -25 to -35 below zero range, beginning in Northwest Kansas tomorrow and spreading southward across Kansas as the storm departs. Temperatures on Wednesday may not crack 10 degrees in some of the hardest hit areas.

This continues to be an evolving and dangerous situation. I will update this again close to 5 pm.

Matthew Harding

Evening Winter Storm Update

2011-01-07T23:17:00.005-06:00

Good evening! I am still continuing to track a winter storm that will bring travel problems to the state of Kansas beginning Sunday midday and continuing through Tuesday morning. After that, it still looks like some severe cold is going to pay Kansas a visit.

Currently there are winter storm watches and winter weather advisories in effect. Just click on the picture for specific details.

The overall idea of a long duration, accumulating snowfall remains on the table. That said, I am intrigued with the notion that we may see an area of some locally heavier snow develop and move east primarily north of Highway 50, especially during the predawn-midday Monday time frame. That area would extend from Garden City-Pratt-El Dorado, and north to I-70. This notion is supported by both the NAM (North American mesoscale model) and GFS (Global Forecast System model.) I will be very intrigued to see of this indication of heavier snow remains on subsequent model runs.

It is important to note that the system causing our winter storm is still not on shore yet, meaning that it is not well sampled by upper air instruments that are used to put computer forecasts together. The system should make landfall tonight in NW Washington State, and then it will be properly sampled. I will have a much better guess as to potential accumulations tomorrow night.

As of now, this is my best guess at accumulations across Kansas from this winter storm:

North of a line from Hill City-Salina-Topeka => 6-8" with locally higher amounts

Wichita/Hutch/Kingman/Emporia/Dodge and Garden Cities => 4-6"

Along the Oklahoma/Kansas Border => 2-4"

N Oklahoma => T-2"

I will have another update on this winter storm sometime Saturday afternoon.

Matthew Harding

An Early Look at Weekend Storm, Cold to Follow

2011-01-07T14:10:00.011-06:00

Good Afternoon! Forecasting winter storms has to be one of the most difficult things a meteorologist has to do. You could go to bed one evening with a forecast of no snow accumulation, and wake up the next morning with 5" on the ground. That said, it is a challenge that every meteorologist who is worth their weight in salt, looks forward to meeting. After showing "weather porn" (a phrase coined by famous storm chaser Mike Phelps when he seen a grossly exaggerated snowfall forecast on my Facebook wall over the 2009 Christmas Storm), I decided to lay low and work on fine-tuning my craft, and now its time to go for broke again. So here goes nothing.

A look at the 6 am (12z) model suite continues to indicate a good chance of accumulating snowfall across most of Kansas. There is some variation between the models in just how much snow will fall. What we do know is that this will be a long duration event, so when the snow starts, it will likely last 24-30 hours at a given location. Heavier bands of snow will be possible, especially beginning Sunday night and continuing into the day on Monday as the system deepens and a cold front moves into the state. The system should wrap up late night Monday and set the stage for a frigid week.

Now to accumulations, below are two snowfall graphics from the computer models that are most heavily used during winter storm situations. The top is the NAM (North American Mesoscale model) and the second is the GFS (Global Forecast System model). It should be noted that there has been some slowing of the system within the last 24 hours, and therefore, it is not seen entirely by the NAM model since it only goes out to 84 hours. That said, I am leaning toward the GFS model simply because it has been consistent with slowing the system down as well as all the features of the storm for the last couple of days. It very well may end up being that we see the NAM and GFS come into greater agreement on snow totals later down the road once the system is in full scope of the NAM model.

For now though, I feel comfortable going with a 4-6" snowfall in Wichita by the time the system wraps up Monday night. I'll post more forecast snow totals for around Kansas later tonight.

After that comes the bitter cold. Depending on how much snow is recieved, temperatures for Tuesday and Wednesday may not see double digits in some parts of Kansas. Lows would also fall well below zero and any kind of wind, would only accelerate the potential for frostbite and hypothermia. This is a situation that is far more dangerous than the snow we are expecting, as this has the capability to put a strain on automobiles, power supplies, livestock and the homeless. There will be a slight moderating trend toward the end of the week, but again, that is all dependant on the amount of snow that is received.

That is all for now, I will update this again later this evening after the 6pm model suite.

Matthew Harding

Is This Thing Still On?!?!?!?

2011-01-07T08:52:00.008-06:00

Greetings all! Please accept my apologies for not blogging in roughly 6 months, the amount of time a college student has is very limited and this seems to get pushed to the backburner, which is kinda sad because I really enjoy doing this. Nevermind the fact that it has simply been a snoozer around here when on the weather front. As a matter of fact, most of Kansas is in some kind of drought condition, so to say that moisture is sorely needed around these parts is quite an understatement. Below is a look at the Kansas drought monitor from Tuesday 1/4/11.

So the questions are these, will we see moisture? How much moisture? What form will that moisture fall in? In short, we will see moisture in Kansas beginning tomorrow evening and continuing through Monday. All of the precipitation will fall in the form of snow. There are still some disagreement among models as to how much snow will fall (typical), but the idea of a widespread 3-6" snow is on the table.

Not only will we have snow, but the coldest temperatures of the season are coming to pay Kansas a visit beginning on Monday. I will have more to say about the cold and snow after I look at new forecast data, so be looking for an update before 2 pm.

Matthew Harding

Bonnie Weakens and Storm Chances Today

2010-07-24T11:03:00.000-05:00

Good morning! Tropical storm Bonnie has weakened into a tropical depression (and it really shouldn't even be classified to be honest) as it continues its trek in the Gulf. It really looks like folks working on attempting to contain the oil spill caught a lucky break with Bonnie's demise. As a matter of fact, Reuters reported that some of the ships and vessels have started to head back to the spill site as Bonnie moves inland. Good news all around!

Here at home, storm chances will be on the rise as the day moves along as a cold front moves into the area. The Storm Prediction Center has a slight risk for areas primarily east of the Kansas Turnpike for this afternoon and tonight. Chief threats with todays activity will be torrential rain and some damaging winds as storms collapse.

Stay cool and enjoy the day!

Matthew Harding

Bonnie Makes First Landfall

2010-07-23T11:06:00.003-05:00

Good morning! Tropical storm Bonnie made landfall in Biscayne Bay at 10 am this morning as a 40 mph tropical storm. Bonnie has become only the 5th July tropical storm to strike south Florida. The last one was 25 years ago in 1985. All of that said, Bonnie is a very poorly organized storm for two reasons:

Proximity to an upper level low is causing dry air to get entrained to the system (dry air for tropical systems = bad)
Bonnie is in an area of very high wind shear (wind shear = bad)

Given the above reasons, Bonnie is forecast to remain a weak-moderate tropical storm until landfall. The forecast track has continued to shift slightly east, with landfall in southeast Louisiana during the morning hours on Sunday. The time for landfall has been bumped up 12 hours from last night because the system is so shallow and will be embedded in an area of stronger steering currents until landfall. As a result of this, tropical storm warnings have been issued from Destin, Florida west to Morgan City, Louisiana.

With that in mind, the question becomes; how will this impact the oil slick?

The image above is a look at the area that could be affected by oiling as a result of tropical storm Bonnie. Image courtesy of NOAA.

Strong east-southeast winds from Bonnie will affect the oil slick area during the day on Saturday with the peak coming as Bonnie nears landfall Saturday night into Sunday morning. The combination of wind and wave action will be enough to give some of the marshlands of southeast Louisiana and the coast of Mississippi some renewed oil problems. It should be noted, however, that the affects from Bonnie will not be as widespread as what was experienced when Hurricane Alex was moving through the gulf 3 weeks ago.

As for impacts at the coast and inland, expect 3-6" of rain, 25-50 mph winds, and a storm surge of 2-5' near and to the right of where Bonnie makes landfall. All in all, this will be a storm to "rattle the cages" for those people in the northern gulf.

Closer to home, there is a slight risk for severe thunderstorms across northwest Kansas for late this afternoon and tonight. This is in response to a weak cold front moving into Kansas. This front will provide some relief to the heat that has been unrelenting for the last week-10 days. The main threat from the storms that fire up this afternoon and over the weekend will be torrential rain along with isolated large hail and damaging winds.

I will provide updates on Bonnie as needed through the weekend. I will likely not post much next week, since I am nearing the finish line of my summer semester.

Have a great weekend!

Matthew Harding

"My Bonnie Lies Over the Ocean......."

2010-07-22T22:32:00.003-05:00

Greetings! Tropical depression # 3 was upgraded to tropical storm Bonnie at 5:20 pm this afternoon. As of this update, Bonnie continues to be a minimal tropical storm with winds of 40 mph. Tropical storm warnings remain in effect for south Florida, the Florida Keys, as well as the Bahama Islands.

The forecast track has shifted some to the east since this morning, with landfall forecast near Morgan City, Louisiana late afternoon Sunday. Current forecast intensity from the National Hurricane Center and reliable forecast models keeps Bonnie as a tropical storm, with most models (as of this afternoon's model runs) keeping Bonnie at less than 50 mph. Rainfall and wave action will be the biggest stories from Bonnie, especially since this will be tracking right over the oil spill zone. Of course, if Bonnie strengthens more than expected, this will all change.

I will have a more in-depth look at the forecast for Bonnie and its impact on the oil slick tomorrow.

Meanwhile, storms have been roaming the range tonight, primarily in western Kansas. The main story there has been the heavy rain, with a report of 3.0" rain just west of Scott City and radar indicating up to 6" just north of Lakin in Kearny county.

It looks like the record will repeat again tomorrow, hot and stormy in the west and just plain hot and a little humid in the east. Northwest Kansas is in a slight risk for severe weather for tomorrow afternoon and tomorrow night. Storm chances are still ticketed for late Saturday and Sunday afternoons statewide as a weak cold front moves through and hits the brakes in Oklahoma.

More on Bonnie and the weekend forecast tomorrow!

Matthew Harding

Tropical Happenins

2010-07-22T09:57:00.007-05:00

Greetings once again! Here's hoping that good things are happening for you. Before I get into the meat of my post, let me express my apologies for not writing in a week or so. My summer Chem class has kicked into a frenzied gear as we near the 8-week finish line. As an example, next week will consist of 3 tests in 4 days. I have already apologized to my dearest Shaylon as she'll be enduring the "no-sleep, high stress" version of yours truly.

Here at home, the weather continues to be dominated by a strong ridge of high pressure mixed with a tinge of humidity. Thankfully, the humidity levels have gone down significantly so this has made the heat slightly more bearable, however, excessive heat warnings are in effect for eastern Kansas, Oklahoma, western Missouri and northwest Arkansas as the combination of heat and humidity continues to make things oppressive in that area.

Meanwhile, there are storm chances over the weekend as a very weak cold front moves through the area and becomes stationary over portions of Oklahoma. The threat for organized severe weather looks minimal at this time, but with the amount of heat and instability present, any storm that fires may become briefly severe.

As we look further abroad, the tropics have certainly sprung to life in the last 36-48 hours. Currently, the system worth looking at is off the southeast coast of Florida. As of this writing, the National Hurricane Center has recently initiated updates on a new tropical depression (winds less than 40 mph). This system is forecast to strengthen and become tropical storm Bonnie (winds of 40-75 mph) later today or tonight. As a result, the National Hurricane Center has issued tropical storm warnings along the east coast of Florida (including the Florida Keys), as well as the central and northern Bahama islands. The system is forecast to continue moving west-northwest and emerge into the Gulf of Mexico late Friday afternoon and move through the Gulf during the weekend.

The image above is a probabilitic forecast of where the greatest chance of experiencing tropical storm winds(40-75 mph) will be. As you can clearly tell, unless something drastic changes with the track of the storm, this will bring a halt to oil recovery operations in the Gulf. The forecast as of now is for the system to make landfall as a tropical storm on the western Louisiana gulf coast Sunday night, but tropical storm track and intensity forecasts are subject to change.....so stay tuned. Currently, the main threats from this look to be rain and wave action. Look for 5-10" of rain near and to the east of the center, so flooding will be an issue given that southwest Louisiana is extremely low and flat country. Waves will run in the 4-6' above normal tide range.

As if that weren't enough, there is another area of interest in the southern Gulf of Mexico. There is a chance that this could become a tropical depression in the next 48 hours. If it does develop, the greatest threat would be to Mexico.

I'll continue to update the blog through the weekend as this will no doubt be the news and weather story of the week.

Make it a good one!

Matthew Harding

Storm Update

2010-07-14T22:46:00.002-05:00

Image as of 1050 pm cdt Wednesday July 14th

Storms continue across central Kansas late this Wednesday evening. So far tonight there have been several of reports of 70 mph winds along with some quarter-golfball size hail. Earlier southwest of Garden City, a 40 foot tall tree was blown over due to strong winds. These storms could hold together long enough to make it into the Wichita area during the overnight hours. By the time they get here, they should be non-severe with winds of 40-50 mph and torrential rains.

Thursday still looks like a day where scattered thunderstorms could develop during the late afternoon and evening hours. Along with the chance of storms, expect the humidity to persist for another day.

Matthew Harding

Oppressive Humidity Rolls On.......

2010-07-14T13:41:00.013-05:00

Welcome to day 2 from the sauna better known as Kansas. I don't know about you, but having lived here all my life, this has to be some of the highest humidity I have ever experienced (except for during and shortly after a rain of course). Below is a map of dewpoints at 1 pm across Kansas:

The combination of temperatures in the mid 90's-low 100's and dewpoints in the mid-upper 70's are creating dangerous heat indicies in the 107-117 degree range (EDIT: 4pm Heat Index at Wichita 114 degrees). What's worse is that this just isn't happening in a small area, its happening across the eastern 2/3rds of Kansas, Oklahoma, Nebraska, across most of Missouri, Iowa and northern Arkansas. This begs the question, why is it so humid? The reason why can be found in this very interesting web story written by the National Weather Service in Wichita.

So with that in mind, the next question is whether we can expect to see a break in the heat wave. Probably the prudent thing to do is break this question up into 2 sections; short term (within 72 hours) and long term (72 hrs-7 days).

Short Term:
A cold front currently extends from the Colorado front range through western Kansas and into south central Minnesota. Thunderstorms could develop along this front this afternoon and if they do, will likely become severe very quickly with large hail and damaging winds possible. If storms develop into a line, upper level wind trajectories are forecast to bring those storms into south central Kansas during the predawn hours.

During the day Thursday, the cold front is expected to stall somewhere in central Kansas. Along and south of this front, another day of oppressive heat and humidity is expected, even though actual air temperatures will be a few degrees cooler. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to redevelop south of the front, and again, some could be severe with a wind and hail threat. The front is expected to move into northern Oklahoma Thursday night where it will washout and bring a return to the heat on Friday.

This is a chicken and the egg scenario, in that, any rain that falls will have to be evaporated back into the atmosphere which equates to continued high dewpoints into at least the weekend.

Long Term:
Unfortunately, it appears that the ridge of high pressure responsible for the heat wave will linger in the southern plains for atleast the next 7 days. There is some model discrepancy about whether we will see overnight thunderstorms over the weekend as storms roll off of the Rockies. With any luck and no storms, the oppressive humidity will start to abate later in the weekend. It sure looks like we will see our first official 100 degree day sometime next week.

More on the heat and storm chances tomorrow!

Matthew Harding

2010 Chase Wrap and the Brits are Grumpy

2010-07-13T15:06:00.008-05:00

Greetings! Now that the 2010 chase season is winding down (at least here), I thought it would be apropos to look back at my chase season. One of the many words that I can find for it is disappointing and this is for a number of reasons, some of which I won't get into. I will say thought that my definitive highlight of the season was the May 10th chase which featured a tornadic storm bearing down on metro Wichita.

The May 10, 2010 tornado outbreak was much anticipated to say the least, especially since 2009 was so painstakingly slow. The morning of the event started out cloudy, drizzly and with a heavy feel. I was scurrying around to make sure my final website project was in good working order and Scott was busy doing newscasts for his markets. Both of us knew it would be a big day, but the recent model prognostications had continued to shift the highest threat area south of the Kansas/Oklahoma border. About an hour into crunching data and trying to decide on a target, we received a "phone-a-friend" call from NWS Wichita Lead Forecaster Brad Ketcham. Brad helped us zero in on a target and we were on the road by 215 that afternoon.

The storm responsible for the threat to Wichita developed in Woods county, OK as a part of a cell split. One cell turned immediately off to the east was responsible for dropping a 1/2 mile wide, EF3 wedge tornado that was on the ground for 52 minutes and moved into Kansas very near the Arkansas City area in SW Cowley county. Our storm moved NE from Medicine Lodge and then began to turn to the east as it was moving into Kingman county. By 415 pm our storm was tornado warned. For the next 10 minutes we were near the city of Zenda trying to get a better look at the possible rotation, but the storm was moving so quick it was nearly impossible to sit in one place and get a real good look. While Scott was doing a live phoner on KWCH, Shaylon and Scott's daughter Pat noticed a funnel that was 3/4 of the way to the ground. It was then that we weren't chasing the storm, it was chasing us. We quickly busted out of there and moved back to K-14 where we could fix some data issues and briefly catch our breath. We kept up with the area of rotation until we got to near Viola.

With a tornado on the ground and closing in on the west side of Wichita, I got third call from Brad and this sobering quote "I just wonder if I'll have a place to go back to work, it looks like the airport is could take a direct hit." Right then, I got a lump in my throat and was genuinely concerned for my friends working at the National Weather Service. Shortly after that phone call the tornado lifted, and our journey back into town was capped with a ton of rain and some very small hail. Luckily, the storm merged with another cell and the tornado threat quickly diminished before the tornado moved into west Wichita. The one thing I take away from that day is that if we had broken into 3-6 hours of sunshine, it could have been so much worse. It was definitely one day that I was glad the clouds were on our side. That was a very hectic day and the fact that we didn't see a tornado was a blessing given all the data issues we had, plus the storm motions were outrageous.

(Radar Image Courtesy NWS Wichita)

(Photo Courtesy Mickey McGuire, Goodland NWS)

As for chasing in 2011, right now I would say no, but the meteorologist in me wants to chase every cumulus cloud so we will see. I am getting to the point in my schooling that activities like chasing will likely have to take a backseat, unless the event looks huge.

On to present day weather. Is it me or did we wake up in the Amazon this morning?!? It has turned out to be one very hot and humid afternoon. In fact, the observation from Wichita at 3 pm was 95/77 (temperature/dewpoint) for a heat index of only 109 degrees. National Weather Service offices around the state have issued heat advisories for most of central and eastern Kansas through 7pm Wednesday. The next chance to see storms around the area looks to be on Wednesday night into Thursday as a weak front sags into the area. At this time, it appears that northern Kansas has the best shot of seeing some storms. After that, settle in for some typical Kansas summertime heat. This weekend and into next week looks like our best shot to break the vaunted 100 degree plateau for the first time this year.

With all this heat settling in here like an unwanted Mother-in-Law, its time to ask the question, how does the heat make you feel? Well, apparently it makes our tea and strumpet toting friends across the pond a tad grumpy. In a survey of 6,000 British adults, almost 88% of those surveyed said they lost an average of 2 hours of sleep per night thanks to the heat. 27% of those surveyed said that traveling in hot conditions would make them yell at a child and curse. So the next time you get the urge to yell and cuss, just blame it on the heat.

Talk to you tomorrow!

Matthew Harding

Does This Thing Still Work?

2010-07-12T17:24:00.004-05:00

Indeed it has been a while since I have blogged....in fact, my last post was exactly 2 months ago today. I have been extremely busy with school, and trying to keep some semblance of a life outside of the classroom. Admittedly, it has been working to some degree, but I will be ever so gracious when I get 3 weeks of R & R in August. I will do better at this in the future, especially since I have some readers (Mike Jerkin.......ha!) and they actually care to see what I write (type or whatever).

I have actually given it some thought as to how to carry on with this, especially since this will be used as a "journal" for an online creative writing class in the fall semester. First off, let me say that every blog post will have some weather aspect in it. Obviously if there is a major weather event happening or about to happen, that will dictate what is written and discussed on here. My goal is to not come on here and just spew weather. Lord knows there are enough of those and the last thing the world needs is another person writing about how the GFS model is predicting that the sky is gonna fall in 180 hours.

I am also gonna attempt to sprinkle in some other takes on issues and write about the goings on in my life, but I promise to not stray into the land of Olbermann, Hannity, and Pat Robertson (the only thing I will say about those three is that they make my skin crawl with how negative and out of touch they are.) I hope that this will work. As always feedback, from the ones of you who read this, is always appreciated.

So now that the formalities are out of the way, I have to actually decide what I want to talk about. Two months away from blogging leaves much to discuss. I think I will do it in this order:

My chase season "recap"
Talk tropics
My take on the LeBron James saga and whether it will work in South Florida

I am sure that I will think of some more topics to talk about later but this is what I've got for now.

As for the weather, it has been a bumpy afternoon with some thunderstorms roaming the state this Monday afternoon and evening. So far today, there have been two distinct areas of thunderstorms; one in South Central Kansas, the other in Northwest Kansas. With the activity in South Central Kansas, a funnel cloud was reported 7 miles W of Eureka in Greenwood County about 330 pm this afternoon. Meanwhile, the activity in Northwest Kansas has been prolific hailers. In fact, there was a report from the east side of Colby of softball size hail (4.25" diameter). As of this writing, the activity had subsided some and that trend is expected to continue as we near sunset.

Tomorrow and Wednesday look to be broilers. Temperatures in the mid 90's to low 100's combined with humidity will drive heat indices in the 103-108 degree range. There will be some wind, but it will only act to provide temporal relief from the sweltering temperatures. The next chance of rain after today's action looks to be on Thursday, and we'll get into that more in the coming days.

The tropics remain quiet after an active 10 days that seen our first named storm of the season (which became a hurricane) make landfall about 100 miles south of Brownsville, TX and a tropical depression make landfall on South Padre Island, TX only 6 days later. We'll get into the tropics in detail later in the week.

I'll recap my 2010 chase season and begin dissecting our next chance of storms in my next blog post which will be tomorrow.

Matthew Harding

Wednesday's Chase

2010-05-12T12:14:00.005-05:00

The above image is a look at surface temperatures at 11am across Kansas. The spread is from 39 at Goodland, to 79 at Medicine Lodge....a 40 degree spread in roughly 250 miles. Also within the warmer air, tons of gulf moisture. Dewpoints at 11am were in the upper 60's to low 70's across south central Kansas. This temperature and moisture gradient is setting the stage for the probability of more severe weather across the area this afternoon.

The Storm Prediction Center has us in slight risk for severe weather this afternoon and tonight. In that slight risk are; 10% chance of tornadoes, 30% chance of significant (2"+ or larger) hail, and a 15% chance of severe winds (greater than 60 mph). The stark difference from Monday, will be the storm motions. Storms today should move between 25-30 mph, which will make tracking them so much easier.

At the time of this writing, some light showers and maybe a rumble of thunder were moving through metro Wichita. After these showers pass, the sun will once again come out and we will continue destabilizing the atmosphere. Storm initiation looks to be between 2-5 pm with storms rapidly becoming severe, given the amount of moisture and instability present. Current guidance would suggest that the best chance to see a tornado lies in an area east of a McPherson-Hutch-Anthony and to the west of a line from Emporia-Eureka-Arkansas City.

Scott and I have initially targeted western Sedgwick county to start, then it will be all about picking the right storm. Personally, I expect a tornado watch to be issued by 3pm. It should be stressed that this setup does not look as extreme as Monday's event, however, you should stay up on the weather and have a plan to move should you need to.

Later this evening and into the overnight hours, the threat will switch from severe weather, to a flood threat as the front stalls over portions of south central and southeast Kansas. The amount of thunderstorms that develops in the warm air will ultimately dictate where the front stalls. Once it becomes stationary, thunderstorms will continue to develop along the front and produce heavy rains. In fact, the NWS offices in Kansas City (technically Pleasant Hill, but we'll call it KC) and Springfield have issued flash flood watches in anticipation of heavy rain overnight.

Remember, you can follow along with us this afternoon (provided we don't have dreaded data/computer issues.....fingers crossed) @ http://blog.ksstorm.info/statustracking

I will have a complete wrap-up of today's chase and a look ahead at when we might see our next severe weather chance tomorrow.

Matthew Harding

A Look Back at Monday and More Severe Overnight

2010-05-11T14:43:00.003-05:00

First of all, I want to say a huge thank you to NWS Wichita Lead Forecaster Brad Ketcham who assisted Scott and I with our forecast and provided nowcasting help in a very stressful situation yesterday. The event yesterday was the single greatest threat to the city of Wichita since May 3, 1999. In that same vain, I want to extend thoughts and prayers to the people of Oklahoma and Kansas who were impacted by tornadoes yesterday. We were able to get a couple of good photos, and I will try to get them up in the coming days. The NWS Offices in Wichita and Norman have some preliminary write-ups on yesterday's event.
Here is the link to Wichita's: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=ict&storyid=52245&source=0
And the link to Norman's: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/?n=events-20100510

I want to share some thoughts about the run-up to yesterday's severe weather event. While yesterday was significant, this was no May 3, 1999 or May 4, 2004....that said, it could very well have been if the clouds had broken up and storm motion was 15-25mph slower. Personally, I think that this was the best setup in the plains in over 2 years, and some people got carried away with how great the setup was. I get that the business of the media is to hype up everything and trash everything that doesn't live up to the hype, however, this is not how chasers and meteorologists should act. For if we fall into that trap, the public we are trying to protect, will not listen to us anymore.

Ok, now that I am off my soapbox, we do have chances for thunderstorms (and severe weather) back in the forecast beginning this evening and running through Thursday afternoon. The same front/dryline combo that moved through yesterday has setup shop (for the moment) from near Tulsa-south of Gage, Ok to near Woodward, OK. South of this boundary the atmosphere is becoming extremely unstable, however, a lid of warmer air is keeping thunderstorm development at bay for the time being. I do expect storms to develop south of the boundary later this afternoon, with some storms capable of producing extremely large hail (greater than baseball size) and possible tornadoes.

Overnight, we will see that warm front begin to lift north in response to another surface low developing in the west Texas panhandle. A very strong low level jet in excess of 60 kts, coupled with intense moisture advection in atmosphere, will set the stage for the return of severe thunderstorms. The main threats with the storms overnight in Kansas will be very large hail (greater than golfball size) and until about 1 am, the threat for isolated tornadoes (especially south of the warm front). I think most of the storms will be north of Wichita by 1 am and out of Kansas by 7 am Wednesday. It will be a heads-up weather night across the state, so make sure you have a source of information to keep updated on the warnings.

There is another chance for severe weather during the daylight hours on Wednesday, but I will have more on that later. I gotta have a reason to keep you coming back, right?

Matthew Harding

Monday Update

2010-05-10T13:09:00.002-05:00

After crunching data with Scott and NWS meteorologist Brad Ketcham (he wasn't on duty), I am feeling much better about our forecast for late this afternoon and tonight. We will be working in an area bounded by a Pratt-Waynoka, OK-Ponca City, OK-Augusta to start. This is where we feel the threat for significant tornadoes would happen, and it have an impact on metro Wichita. Of course, we would continue to follow any storm, provided there isn't any harm to life or property.

We are encouraged by the 60 degree dewpoints that are encroaching the border, and the clearing taking place to the west. We also feel that the target area would be in full sunshine by 4pm at the latest, thus, enhancing potential instability needed for tornadoes.

Since the threat to metro Wichita is enhanced, it is time for you to know what you are going to do when a tornado warning is issued. Storm motions will be very fast, so warning time will be limited, so it is imperative that you stay up on the weather.

A shameless plug before I go. You can follow along this afternoon on the live stream (no audio though) @ http://blog.ksstorm.info/statustracking/.

By the way, its a good thing that Riverfest canceled all of its events today. That could have been a real disaster if the worst case scenario happened.

One more thing, don't look now, but we have another chance for severe weather on Wednesday. 'Tis the season!

Matthew Harding

One of those days......

2010-05-10T09:06:00.002-05:00

The above image is the Significant Tornado Parameter for 5pm off the RUC (Rapid Update Cycle) model from 7am this morning.

Well we have arrived to the day that seemingly every chaser has been longing for for about 2 years. The SPC overnight placed portions of south central, southeast Kansas as well as north central and northeast Oklahoma in a HIGH risk for severe thunderstorms this afternoon and tonight. So while it is drizzly and drippy outside now, expect that to change.

Initiation time looks to be between 2-5pm, and will take place in W KS first...then rapidly move east throughout the afternoon. Any storm that develops in Oklahoma will move into Kansas and have the capability to produce strong to violent long track tornadoes. The best chances for that look to be along and southeast of the Kansas Turnpike, including metro Wichita.

I am in class now (Shout out to my XHTML classmates!!! Wo0t!), but will quickly be leaving to have a data crunching session with Scott and will update this again after we are done.

Matthew Harding

Moderate Monday

2010-05-09T01:59:00.002-05:00

This will be a short update since my eyes are burning from being up 44 of the last 48 hours. Just gotta love finals time! Be that as it may, the Storm Prediction Center has placed a MODERATE RISK for areas of northern and central Oklahoma, south central and southeast Kansas, and far western Missouri. The above map shows the probability (in percent) of severe weather happening within 25 miles of a point. As you can see, the Wichita area is firmly in the 45% probability. That means that we have a 1 in 2 shot of seeing a strong tornado, hail greater than 2", or winds greater than 70 mph.

I wanted to get that out there so you could see that. I will have a complete update and breakdown of the event tomorrow afternoon after the 7 am model suite is out.

Matthew Harding

Monday Update

2010-05-08T20:31:00.002-05:00

I will be updating this again after the 7pm cdt model suite comes in, and SPC issues its first day 2 outlook (1 am cdt). Sufficed to say, the GFS has now become the quicker solution and is no longer supported by other models. Still tons of disagreement, and I'll try to disspell some of it after this evenings runs.

Matthew Harding

All Eyes on Monday

2010-05-08T02:43:00.002-05:00

My apologies for not posting a forecast yesterday. I won't bore you with specifics, except to tell you that there are two distinct camps out there with regards to a possible severe weather episode on Monday. This information is based off the 7pm Friday evening runs of both the NAM and GFS models.

Camp #1--NAM (North American Model)

Keeps a bubble of colder air over central and parts of southwestern Kansas, this in turn keeps the warmer and more humid air in central and western Oklahoma. My feeling is that these are likely remnant clouds from thunderstorm activity that could develop Sunday evening across central and eastern Kansas. I don't really see the clouds holding tough, especially since there would likely be some subsidence (air sinking) ahead of the main low pressure. There are indications as well that the main low pressure center would not be a deep low needed to force and keep the moisture in place. Personally, I believe that this model is an outlier since very few of the operational models (and there are a good number of them) have not shown such a solution.

Camp # 2--GFS (Global Forecast System)

This has been one of the more consistent models (when taking the mean of the model tracks). This solution has continued to bring a stronger (negatively tilted.....hence the name of the blog.....not to shabby, eh?) system from southern Utah, through southern Colorado, and then move northeast across western and central Kansas. This would put southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma in the bullseye for the potential of significant severe weather. This is a solution that has been forecasted for days, and has been consistently supported by other models so that lends some credence to this forecast.

Don't get me wrong, both solutions would support a severe weather episode (perhaps significant) somewhere across the central/southern plains. My gut (and its a rather large one) tells me that there will be at least 2 areas for storms to develop, both areas having the same general threats. The areas described below would be a compromise of both the NAM and GFS models from Friday evening.

The first area would be along the warm front and slightly north of there by 50-60 miles. This area would be north of a line from Great Bend-McPherson-Emporia. In this area, large hail and damaging winds would be the threats, the tornado threat would be predicated on whether or not a storm develops right on the warm front. If a tornado develops on the warm front, then a strong tornado is possible.

The second area would be south of the warm front and ahead of the dryline which would likely run from Great Bend south into western Oklahoma. Here shear profiles are superb and we would have more moisture to work with. In this area, shear profiles indicate that the main storm mode would be discrete supercells. Any storm that develops in this environment would quickly become severe with very large hail and tornadoes (perhaps strong and long-track) the threats.

While this gives one a general idea on the forecasted layout, this is by no means etched in stone. These models will continue to change and fine-tune the target areas. I will continue to monitor the model runs and will likely have another update sometime this afternoon after an in-depth analysis of the 7am model suite.

Matthew Harding

Active Pattern Beginning.....

2010-05-06T14:45:00.003-05:00

Just in case you have not been out in the last few hours, the "mugginess" factor has increased. This is in response to a warm front lifting north across southern Kansas. This warm front will help aid in thunderstorm development this afternoon generally along and north of the highway 56 corridor in central Kansas. During the evening, a complex of storms will develop in SW Nebraska/ NW KS and move east along the border overnight. Following this complex, a cold front will move through and a very nice Friday and Saturday are on the horizon.

The same high pressure that brought nice weather to the area on Friday and Saturday will slide east and beginning overnight Saturday, the 12z Thursday NAM (North American Model) develops a 20-30 knot low level jet across western Kansas as moisture starts to return to the region. Areas of showers and storms could develop across central and western Kansas overnight Saturday into early Sunday in response this.

Sunday could feature some showers and storms in the area, especially north of the warm front. There remains some model discrepancy as to how fast the moisture returns, but I am going to go with the GFS (Global Forecast System) model simply because it has been the most consistent with moisture return.

I am becoming quietly optimistic about Monday's severe potential. The GFS model has been consistent for the last few days with ejecting a significant piece of energy into the central plains. The one piece that we have not had with any severe event this year (or last year for that matter), was uninterrupted moisture return. It would appear that we would have at least 36 hours of that ahead of this system. The shear is also very good as well. Surface winds at 00z Tuesday (7pm cdt) are out of the southeast, while 50-60 kt of 500mb shear exists. Lifted indicies are progged to be in the -8 to -12 range (which indicates that the parcel will have be able to rise rapidly). The only thing that is stopping this from being a red-letter day is the capping potential. I tend to believe that if you have a deepening lee-side surface low (progged to be in SW KS at 00z Tuesday), and you are in the left front quadrant of the jet stream, then the cap can be overcome. In fact, the GFS does show blotches (blotches = storms)of precip breaking out by 00z Tuesday. The setup is conducive for tornadoes, but just how strong or whether they will be of the long-track variety will be settled in the coming days.

Thats all I have for now. I will be updating this later today or tonight.

Matthew Harding

Welcome to Negative Tilt Wx

2010-05-06T09:33:00.003-05:00

Greetings and welcome to the blog! Consider this your "one-stop shopping" for chase forecasts, past chase accounts and some other, fun, things along the way. It is my goal to make this a worthwhile endeavor. So saddle up and enjoy the ride.

I am in the middle of developing a website that will tie everything together, so I have been a tad lax on getting my chase accounts from 2010 on here. I will try to get that on here ASAP, as well as take a look down the road to a potentially significant severe weather event next Monday (5/10/10).

Have a good day and thanks for reading this!

Matthew Harding

Negative Tilt Wx

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Major Severe Weather Threat for Kansas

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More on the Reading, KS and Joplin, MO Tornadoes

Forecast Update

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An Early Look at Weekend Storm, Cold to Follow

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2010 Chase Wrap and the Brits are Grumpy

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Wednesday's Chase

A Look Back at Monday and More Severe Overnight

Monday Update

One of those days......

Moderate Monday

Monday Update

All Eyes on Monday

Active Pattern Beginning.....

Welcome to Negative Tilt Wx